In the event the Russians wish to deploy the Kuznetsov off the cost of Israel it would take only 5 hours for this vessel to leave Tartus, travel the 160 miles to be off station from Tel Aviv. Assad is gambling that with the Russian armada back to Russia's old naval base of Tartus, which already has all the infrastructure in place Israel will be stopped by the western pressure from retaliating against Syrian aggression through terror proxies, even when it is proved Syria was responsible.
The Russians are sending the Kuznetsov’s with an air wing of consisting of:
38 supersonic attack fighters:
16 - Yakovlev Yak-41M (NATO code name Freestyle)
12 - Sukhoi Su-27K (NATO codename Flanker)
24 rotary wing helocopters all based on the Helix design:
.
4 - Kamov Ka-27-LD (NATO codename Helix)
18 - Kamov Ka-27 PLO
2 - Ka-27-S.
Combining the strike capabilities with the Kuznetsov is the missle cruiser Moska. Whose main armament is sixteen SS-N-12 Sandbox surface-to-surface missiles, with a payload consisting of either a 1000 kg high explosive warhead or a 350 kT nuclear device.
Once the Kuznetsov makes port in Syria all bets are off. Israel will go through a period of political uncertainty, culminating in increased terrorist attacks. Never one to listen to reason, Hamas and the PLO will start increasing terrorist attacks within Israel, while Hezbollah from Lebanon in the north, they will do this on the premise that Israel will be afraid to do anything about it. As Israeli casualties mount in the streets of Israel, with all likelihood the ultra-hawk Benjamin Netanyahu will be Prime Minister before the end of the year.
Israel may just very well see that their best course of action is to eliminate Syria from the equation. Fearing a Russian reprisal if the Russian fleet is harmed directly, Damascus seems the most likely target for the Israeli Air Force. Damascus is only 87 miles from the Ramat David Israeli Air Force Base, and 47 miles from the demilitarized zone between Israel and Damascus. At 31 miles per minute the F-15 is capable of giving Syria as little as 90 seconds warning, which would not be enough time to evacuate the political leadership.
The Russians never move strategic assets like the Kuznetsov into a danger zone unless they have a plan. This will not be missed by neither NATO’s intelligence services or Israel’s. They know something is coming, the only question is the timing. Both Russia and Iran are planning on attacking Israel, Russia is intentionally placing Iran in harms way by not seeking to isolate Iran for their nuclear aspirations. Are the gambling on an American or Israeli response to the ballooning threat Iran poses as a legitimate excuse to move their troops through the Caucasus’? Will Iraq open a corridor for them, and what would be the US response?
While Russia has threatened the US with an EMP attack, they know that this would have to wait. Such an attack would be seen by the US as a prelude to a nuclear attack and it would unleash US missiles at Russia. The more plausible scenario would be for Iran to start the conflict, while at the same time terrorists increase attacks on Israel. Azerbaijan mostly Shia Muslims may simply switch sides and join with Iran, using the communist Kurdish PKK could also add to the conflict through feigned attacks against the western enclave of Azerbijan designed to give the Russians an opportunity to move further down the Caucasus’ through Armenia giving their military a full northern facing with Iraq, all this will de done under the pretext of stopping aggression as it was in Georgia. The US has already given the Russians the green light for this when they agreed the Russians had the right to defend their troops stationed in Georgia, although this was done to try to get the Russian to the negotiating table before things get out of hand.
To effectively neutralize the United States without showing direct proof and thus incurring the wrath of the United States, the United States will be thrown into chaos internally. The assassination of Barak Hussein Obama would do nicely. From an Arab and Iranian standpoint It will inflame the passions of Jews controlling American and the western world, from a Russian standpoint it will cause the United States to use its National Guard internally and not be able to support the troops in the Middle East.
Once Iran becomes involved and the Straits of Hormuz are closed world oil prices will be effectively cut off, this would create food shortages in Europe and US Allies in Asia. Relief efforts to places like Africa will not be forthcoming. Many internal conflicts could erupt as leftist countries with ties to Iran try stop the sale of oil to the US and western nations, such as in Venezuela's Hugo Chavez would said he would do.
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