Syria readys to attack Israel

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War appears imminent in Middle East. Syrian Special Forces Commandos have invaded Lebanon using the same ploy that the Russians used to invade Georgia, to protect their citizens, an obscure tribe known as Alawites. They are neither Shite or Sunni but are aligned with Hezbollah. Syria has told France not to interfere with this move, and this now allows Syrian forces to work closely with these terrorists. Syria has been supplying Hezbollah with missiles for some time. Russia has begun supplying both Syria and Hezbollah with missiles increasing the number to that which Israel could not sit still and take. These missiles are being stored in under ground bunkers along the Lebanon Israeli border.

Today Russia has docked 10 warships in the Syrian port of Tartus to act as a deterrent against an Israeli strike on Syria in retaliation for Syria’s involvement with Hezbollah. This move has taken Israel by surprise, and changes the situation dramatically. Adding to this explosive mix Israeli intelligence believes Syria will use chemical weapons in a first strike attack against Israel. Syria is not a signatory to the Chemical Weapons ban, and has a stock pile of weapons of mass destruction from both themselves and from Iraq dictator Sadam Hussein. Israel does not have chemical weapons to respond in kind to Syria, their only response will be nuclear. NATO will be forced to support Israel’s right to use WMD.

The timing could not be worse, with the current Kadima party in turmoil with Shaul Mofaz the Transportation Minister leaving Kadima and hawk elements of Lukid, Labor and Shas poised to force a vote of no confidence in the Knessest, Israel may have no choice but to implement the Sampson Option. Once this happens the Russian fleet will need to make a decision, stay in Tartus and be a target or return to the Black Sea. Once NATO is involved Turkey will be called to block the Dardanelles and Bosporus from out going Russian ships, but would allow the ten ships in Tartus to return to port and the Ukraine may attempt to freeze Russian ships in at their base in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. In any event the US 6th Fleet will defiantly be ready for any Russian transit into the Mediterranean.

Dardanelles and Bosporus

as the British block any Russian reinforcements into the Mediterranean through the Straights of Gibraltar, as these two points are the only available free water transit points the Black Sea or North Sea fleets can use to enter the Mediterranean from the west.

Straights of Gibralter

The Egyptians will not allow any Russian nuclear powered ship to transit the Suez in fear of having the ships attacked in the locks rendering the Suez useless for hundreds of years to come. Nor would the want the Russian moving Warships through their territory as Egypt will probably be called to provide security in the Gaza strip. The fact is at this point Egypt may be the Palestinians only hope as Israel will not waste troops suppressing riots and will in all likelihood treat the Gazan Palestianians as enemy combatants waging a quick and brutal campaign to suppress all opposition. This would also be true for the West Bank as well, but the possibility of King Abudallah of Jorden sending peace keepers in support of Israel is very likely as King Abudallh has sought to keep the peace his faher help achieve in the region.

Suez Canal

However, with NATO providing pressure on the western front, Russia would be hesitant to draw the Ukraine into a fight nor would they risk engaging NATO in Turkey. Their only option would be to pass through the Caucasus linking up with Iran. With Iran's help they may feel that they could defeat the US presence in Iraq and open up the whole Middle East to them. This would effectively place the majority of the worlds oil supply under Putin's control. As winter approaches they may decided to cut off Europe's supply of natural gas.